Timing the grain markets through the understanding of cycles.
Identifying the major trends that bring you the most profitable opportunities.
making the complex understandable
Grain Market Timing
It is very difficult and quite rare, to accurately project market behavior. However, as has now been publicly demonstrated, I believe that knowledge of cycles can unravel what the public sees as random market movements. This notion was put to the test on April 30th, 2011. That was the date we decided to go public and publish our first alert. We mailed a thousand newsletters warning readers that “the tops are in”. We also published this alert on the TFC.charts public forum. To appreciate the accuracy of the alert, let us look at the markets’ behavior. On April 26 Chicago Wheat traded to its highest point after printing the February 9th extreme top. Wheat was quite volatile at the time. Prices were advancing rapidly that week, and as usual, all the talk was of higher and higher prices. Not only did we tell readers that the Feb 9th top would not be breached, we warned of an imminent drop in prices that was to take place. As you can see from the chart, wheat’s highest point was the week of our public warning. September Chicago Wheat has since dropped over $3, without breaking even the April 26th top!
Heading into the last of April, nearby Corn’s highest point was April 11 at $7.84. We went on record to declare this to be “the” top for the nearby chart. We missed Corn’s ultimate top by 16 cents as nearby corn hit $7.99 on June 9th. Corn traded above our identified price of $7.84 by 16 cents and for 3 days, before collapsing 184 cents in 22 days. Even after the July 1st low, when corn rallied higher for some time, it never came back above the April price we identified as “the top”. This means our worst error in the alert was in only one of the three grain markets and by 16 cents and 3 days! Corn has now begun an extraordinary drop, falling below support.
Our April 30th alert projected the February 10th nearby top of $14.55 as the ultimate top in Soybeans. Our confidence led us to tell all who would listen that this point would not be taken out. In the months that followed our alert, there were historic floods, and in the same summer, an historic heat wave. Fundamentalists were wringing their hands predicting much higher prices to come. Most everyone was looking for another impulsive move higher. However, armed with the knowledge of cycles, our publication simply prepared our readers for another chance to sell at elevated levels. We never changed our original position that “the tops were in”. There was no panic reversal of opinion as prices rallied to the top of the trading range just below our benchmark highs, no talk of “possible runs higher”. In fact our advice was just the opposite, consistently and emphatically stating that the grain markets WOULD NOT go higher. This publication has been consistent for these many months in declaring that no new highs will be made. It is a rare accomplishment to accurately identify a market turn as a major change of trend. To further tell the public that a certain price will not be broken, and for it to come to pass, is something that should make the reader curious as to the possibilities of understanding market behavior. What’s more, these market tops unfolded in one of the most volatile times in history, making it much more difficult to identify an ultimate change in the trend.
There is really only one way an analyst can prove his/her effectiveness, and that is to demonstrate an understanding of market behavior in real time. To any objective observer, we believe this has been done. This was the motivation to go public and declare “the tops are in” on April 30th, 2011.
Heading into the last of April, nearby Corn’s highest point was April 11 at $7.84. We went on record to declare this to be “the” top for the nearby chart. We missed Corn’s ultimate top by 16 cents as nearby corn hit $7.99 on June 9th. Corn traded above our identified price of $7.84 by 16 cents and for 3 days, before collapsing 184 cents in 22 days. Even after the July 1st low, when corn rallied higher for some time, it never came back above the April price we identified as “the top”. This means our worst error in the alert was in only one of the three grain markets and by 16 cents and 3 days! Corn has now begun an extraordinary drop, falling below support.
Our April 30th alert projected the February 10th nearby top of $14.55 as the ultimate top in Soybeans. Our confidence led us to tell all who would listen that this point would not be taken out. In the months that followed our alert, there were historic floods, and in the same summer, an historic heat wave. Fundamentalists were wringing their hands predicting much higher prices to come. Most everyone was looking for another impulsive move higher. However, armed with the knowledge of cycles, our publication simply prepared our readers for another chance to sell at elevated levels. We never changed our original position that “the tops were in”. There was no panic reversal of opinion as prices rallied to the top of the trading range just below our benchmark highs, no talk of “possible runs higher”. In fact our advice was just the opposite, consistently and emphatically stating that the grain markets WOULD NOT go higher. This publication has been consistent for these many months in declaring that no new highs will be made. It is a rare accomplishment to accurately identify a market turn as a major change of trend. To further tell the public that a certain price will not be broken, and for it to come to pass, is something that should make the reader curious as to the possibilities of understanding market behavior. What’s more, these market tops unfolded in one of the most volatile times in history, making it much more difficult to identify an ultimate change in the trend.
There is really only one way an analyst can prove his/her effectiveness, and that is to demonstrate an understanding of market behavior in real time. To any objective observer, we believe this has been done. This was the motivation to go public and declare “the tops are in” on April 30th, 2011.
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